Wildland-urban Interface Fire Research Articles

Predicting Wildfire Ember Hot-Spots on Gable Roofs via Deep Learning

Ember accumulation on and around homes can lead to spot fires and home ignition. Post wildland fire assessments suggest that this mechanism is one of the leading causes of home destruction in wildland urban interface (WUI) fires. However, the process of ember deposition and accumulation on and around houses remains poorly understood. Herein, we develop a deep learning (DL) model to analyze data from a series of ember-related wind tunnel experiments for a range of wind conditions and roof slopes. The developed model is designed to identify building roof regions where embers will remain in contact with the rooftop. Our results show that the DL model is capable of accurately predicting the position and fraction of the roof on which embers remain in place as a function of the wind speed, wind direction, roof slope, and location on the windward and leeward faces of the rooftop. The DL model was augmented with explainable AI (XAI) measures to examine the extent of the influence of these parameters on the rooftop ember coverage and potential ignition.

Firebrand burning under wind: an experimental study

Background Spot fires play a significant role in the rapid spread of wildland and wildland–urban interface fires. Aims This paper presents an experimental and modelling study on the flaming and smouldering burning of wood firebrands under forced convection. Methods The firebrand burning experiments were conducted with different wind speeds and firebrand sizes. Key results The burning rate of firebrands under forced convection is quantified by wood pyrolysis rate, char oxidation rate and a convective term. The firebrand projected area is correlated with firebrand diameter, char density, wind speed, and flaming or smouldering burning. A surface temperature model is derived in terms of condensed-phase energy conservation. We finally establish a simplified firebrand transport model based on the burning rate, projected area and surface temperature of firebrands. Conclusion The mass loss due to wood pyrolysis is much greater than that due to char oxidation in self-sustaining burning. The burning rate is proportional to U1/2, where U is wind speed. The projected area for flaming firebrands decreases more rapidly than that for smouldering ones. The firebrand surface temperature is mainly determined by radiation. Implications Knowledge about firebrand burning characteristics is essential for predicting the flight distance and trajectory in firebrand transport.

Global expansion of wildland-urban interface (WUI) and WUI fires: insights from a multiyear worldwide unified database (WUWUI)

Fires in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) are an important issue globally. To understand the change of WUI, we develop a 9 km worldwide unified wildland-urban interface database for 2001–2020 with Random Forest models and satellite data. We find that WUI has been increasing in all populated continents from 2001 to 2020 and the global relative increase is 24%, with the largest relative increase (∼59%) over Africa. Global total fire counts decrease by 10% from 2005 to 2020, whereas the WUI fraction of fire counts increases by 23%. The global total burned area decreases by 22% from 2005 to 2020, whereas the WUI fraction of burned area increases by 35%. These are mainly due to the expansion of WUI area. On all the populated continents, the WUI fractions of fire counts are higher than the WUI fractions of burned area, implying that WUI fires tend to have smaller sizes than wildland fires. We also project future WUI changes for the years 2030 and 2040, together with the projection of future fire burned area under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) scenarios in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). The projected global WUI fraction (excluding Antarctica and the oceans) is 5.9% in 2040 compared to 4.8% in 2020. The global WUI fraction of burned area is projected to increase from now to 2040 under most scenarios analyzed in this study, unless the WUI area stays at the 2020 level together with the projected burned area under SSP4-4.5. This study is a first step to understanding the changes of WUI fires at the global scale and demonstrates a growing importance of WUI fires. The global multi-year WUI and WUI fire datasets developed in this study can facilitate future work quantifying the impacts of WUI fires on air quality and climate.

Rapid Measurement of Magnetic Particle Concentrations in Wildland–Urban Interface Fire Ashes and Runoff Using Compact NMR

Wildfires are increasing in size, frequency, and intensity, releasing increased amounts of contaminants, including magnetic particles, into the surrounding environment. The aim of this paper is to develop a sensing method for the detection and quantification of magnetic particles (MPs) in fire ash and fire runoff using a compact Time-Domain Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (TD-NMR) system. The system is made up of custom NMR electronics with a compact and rugged permanent magnet array designed to enable future deployment as an in situ sensor. A signal-to-noise ratio of 25 dB was measured for a single scan, and sufficient data can be acquired in one minute. A linear relationship with an R <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</sup> value of 0.9699 was established between transverse relaxation rates and MP concentrations in ash samples. This was validated by testing known dilutions of pure magnetite particles and showing that they fit within the same linear curve. The developed approach was then applied to detect MPs in surface water, where changes in the relaxation rates as high as 400% were observed before and after a wildfire event. MPs were removed from the surface water using a magnetic particle separator to confirm that observed changes were solely due to the presence of MPs. The compact NMR system can be used as a simple and rapid approach to track and quantify the concentrations of magnetic particles released from fire ashes and also from other sources such as discharges from coal ash and other combustion ashes.

Firebrands Generated During WUI Fires: A Novel Framework for 3D Morphology Characterization

AbstractThe goal of the present work is to establish a framework for firebrand morphology characterization. Central to this framework is the development of a simple firebrand shape classification model using multi-dimensional particle shape descriptors. This classification model is built upon a series of synthetically generated 3D particles whose shapes and sizes are chosen to be representative of actual firebrands typically encountered during vegetative and structural fuel burns. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is applied to the synthetic dataset and used to structure the classification model. The model is then verified using 3D digital representations of real-world particles (firebrands collected during tree burns and unburned bark pieces from oak trees). The classification model, which will allow meaningful comparisons of firebrand morphological features by shape class, is expected to be gradually refined as more datasets are made available throughout the Wildland–Urban Interface (WUI) fire research community.

Examining Exposure Fires from the United States National Fire Incident Reporting System between 2002 and 2020

Fires resulting from antecedent fires, known as exposure fires, can manifest across diverse environments, including suburban, urban, and rural areas. Notably, exposure fires represented by structure-destroying fires within the wildland–urban interface (WUI) can extend into non-WUI suburban and urban regions, presenting significant challenges. Leveraging data from the United States National Fire Incident Reporting System (NFIRS) spanning 2002 to 2020, this study investigates 131,739 exposure fire incidents impacting 348,089 features (incidents). We analyze reported economic costs, affected feature types, and property utilization patterns for these exposure fires. We also compare these exposure fires to information documented in other databases. Finally, we examine structure separation distance at residential dwellings and describe ignition pathways for selected fires. Reported property losses for some fire incidents amounted to USD 5,647,121,172, with content losses totaling USD 1,777,345,793. Prominent fire incident categories include buildings, vehicles, and natural vegetation fires, predominantly occurring in residential, outdoor, and storage areas. While the NFIRS lacked information on most major structure-destroying WUI fires, highlighting this analysis’s lack of statistical representation, it did provide insights into less extensive exposure fires, both WUI and non-WUI, unrecorded elsewhere. Our study reveals significant distinctions in the distribution of separation distances between damaged-to-damaged structures (average separation of 6.5 m) and damaged-to-not-damaged structures (average separation of 18.1 m). Notably, 84% of the incidents in exposure fires involved fire suppression defensive actions. These defensive actions contributed to the differences in structure separation distance distributions, highlighting the often-neglected role of these measures in assessing structure responses during WUI fires. We examined ignition pathways at select exposure fires, highlighting some common features involved in fire spread and challenges in documenting these pathways. Finally, we propose a set of idealized attributes for documenting exposure fires, accentuating the inherent difficulties in collecting such data across expansive geographical areas, particularly when striving for statistical representation. Our findings yield valuable insights into the multifaceted nature of exposure fires, informing future research and database development to aid in mitigating their impact on vulnerable communities.

A Field Study of an Extinguishing Material for use in Forest and Wildland-Urban Interface Fires

A Field Study of an Extinguishing Material for use in Forest and Wildland-Urban Interface Fires

Quantification of Bioaccessible and Environmentally Relevant Trace Metals in Structure Ash from a Wildland-Urban Interface Fire.

Wildfires at the wildland-urban interface (WUI) are increasing in frequency and intensity, driven by climate change and anthropogenic ignitions. Few studies have characterized the variability in the metal content in ash generated from burned structures in order to determine the potential risk to human and environmental health. Using inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy (ICP-OES) and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS), we analyzed leachable trace metal concentration in soils and ash from structures burned by the Marshall Fire, a WUI fire that destroyed over 1000 structures in Boulder County, Colorado. Acid digestion revealed that ash derived from structures contained 22 times more Cu and 3 times more Pb on average than surrounding soils on a mg/kg basis. Ash liberated 12 times more Ni (mg/kg) and twice as much Cr (mg/kg) as soils in a water leach. By comparing the amount of acid-extractable metals to that released by water and simulated epithelial lung fluid (SELF), we estimated their potential for environmental mobility and human bioaccessibility. The SELF leach showed that Cu and Ni were more bioaccessible (mg of leachable metal/mg of acid-extractable metal) in ash than in soils. These results suggest that structure ash is an important source of trace metals that can negatively impact the health of both humans and the environment.

How to define the wildland-urban interface? Methods and limitations: towards a unified protocol

In recent decades, the risk of Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) fires has increased due to urban growth, particularly in regions with a Mediterranean climate. The identification of the WUI is crucial for formulating fire prevention and management measures. However, there is no unified methodology for defining the WUI and it is not clear if proposals that emerge from scientific research are implemented by fire management agencies. Our objectives were to identify, describe, and compare the methods and criteria used by land and fire management agencies to define the WUI in Mediterranean-climate countries. We conducted a review of laws and fire prevention and management plans and protocols on the official websites of administrative bodies and agencies of the USA, Spain, Portugal, France, Italy, Greece, South Africa, Australia, Chile, and Argentina. Each document was read and analyzed and we conducted searches for the terminology used to name the WUI, the methodology and criteria used for defining the WUI, the fire prevention and management actions implemented in the WUI, the level of territorial organization and the responsible agencies for implementing the actions, and the presence of a methodology and a map at national scale. We found no consensus on the terminology for the WUI, the most common terms used being: wildland-urban interface, urban-rural interface, and urban-forest interface. With the exception of the USA and Portugal, there is no unified methodology at the national scale. We identified three general methods for defining the WUI: considering buffer distance for urban and vegetation areas (USA, Italy, Chile, South Africa), employing networks of strips (Spain, Portugal), and delineating risk-prone zones (Australia, France). All countries undertake fire prevention actions (e.g., fuel reduction and firebreak creation) often implemented at the municipal level. There is almost no interaction between academia and fire management agencies. Our review addresses the gap in the methods to define the WUI effectively implemented by fire management agencies. We highlight the need to implement actions aimed at enhancing the interaction between fire scientists and fire managers, which is essential for formulating and implementing effective strategies for fire prevention and optimizing resources.

Wildland-urban interface wildfire increases metal contributions to stormwater runoff in Paradise, California.

The 2018 Camp Fire was a large late-year (November) wildfire that produced an urban firestorm in the Town of Paradise, California, USA, and destroyed more than 18 000 structures. Runoff from burned wildland areas is known to contain ash, which can transport contaminants including metals into nearby watersheds. However, due to historically infrequent occurrences, the effect of wildland-urban interface (WUI) fires, such as the Camp Fire, on surface water quality has not been well-characterized. Therefore, this study investigated the effects of widespread urban burning on surface water quality in major watersheds of the Camp Fire area. Between November 2018 and May 2019, 140 surface water samples were collected, including baseflow and stormflow, from burned and unburned watersheds with varying extent of urban development. Samples were analyzed for total and filter-passing metals, dissolved organic carbon, major anions, and total suspended solids. Ash and debris from the Camp Fire contributed metals to downstream watersheds via runoff throughout the storm season. Increases in concentration up to 200-fold were found for metals Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn in burned watersheds compared to pre-fire values. Total concentrations of Al, Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn exceeded EPA aquatic habitat acute criteria by up to 16-fold for up to five months after the fire. To assess possible transport mechanisms and bioavailability, a subset of 18 samples was analyzed using four filters with nominal pore sizes ranging from 0.22 to 1.2 μm to determine the particulate size distribution of metals. Trace and major metals (Al, Ba, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, and Zn) were found mostly associated with larger grain sizes (>0.45 μm), and some metals (Al, Cr, Fe, and Pb) also included a substantial colloidal phase (0.22 to 0.45 μm). This study suggests that fires in the wildland-urban interface increase metal concentrations, mainly through particulate driven transport. The metals with the largest increases are likely from anthropogenic disaster materials, though biomass ash also is a major contributor to water quality. The increase in metals following WUI burning may have adverse ecological impacts.

Integrating dynamic wildland fire position input with a community fire spread simulation: A case study of the 2018 Camp Fire

Wildland fire simulation models can be used to inform wildfire risk assessment and mitigation strategies. However, existing models tend to simulate fire spread only inside the wildland or the wildland-urban interface (WUI) communities, but not in both. As a result, there is a need to integrate methodologies to enable seamless simulations of events that ignite in the wildland and continue spreading both across the wildland and inside WUI communities. This paper investigates a systematic methodology to provide a WUI fire spread model with the capacity to assimilate dynamic wildland fire position inputs. The paper uses the streamlined wildland-urban interface fire tracing (SWUIFT) model to simulate WUI fire spread, weather radar data to track the fire line inside the wildland, and the 2018 Camp Fire event as a case study. The work proposes and evaluates a methodology based on a ‘Three-Domain Solution’ (Wildland, Transition, Community) for a smooth fire transition between wildland and community settings. Alternative approaches are examined to describe the boundaries of a Community Domain for simulation purposes. Existing WUI definitions are studied, and considering the analysis results, a non-WUI neighborhood-based housing density (NBHD) method is proposed. This work establishes a systematic approach for a unified wildland-WUI fire simulation.

Pilot Study on Fire Effluent Condensate from Full Scale Residential Fires

AbstractStudies related to effluent produced by structure and vegetation fires often focus on gas phase or solid condensed phase, with limited treatment of liquid condensate generated as smoke cools to ambient. Recent post-fire human health concerns related to systemic human exposures to fire smoke and contamination of water distribution systems after wildland urban interface fires can be informed by understanding the chemical composition of liquid condensate resulting from large-scale fire experiments. In this pilot study, fire effluent (smoke) samples were continuously drawn from five different full-scale room-and-contents fire experiments, from which condensate was collected as the effluent cooled. Elevated concentrations of several volatile organic compounds (VOCs), including benzene, toluene, xylenes, styrene, naphthalene, and acetone along with several anions were detected in the acidic effluent. Many of these same VOCs have been identified in the air during firefighter safety experiments and in post-fire water distribution systems at levels that raise concern for human health. Benzene and naphthalene concentrations in the condensate were orders of magnitude above typical water quality standards and thus may directly contaminate large volumes of water. Peak benzene concentrations were similar to highest values reported from contaminated water distribution systems after wildfire events, though additional study is needed to understand the mechanisms by which this condensate may contribute to systemic contamination. Improved understanding of liquid condensate from fire effluent may be important to other areas of human and environmental health study, and some considerations are provided for future research.

Experimental demonstration test of damages in houses caused by wildland-urban interface fires

In Portugal, forest fuel management (FFM) around buildings is mandatory and regulated by Decree-Law. However, regarding the Portuguese Building Fire Safety Regulation, there are no specific provisions for applying safety measures to mitigate forest fire effects on buildings in the wildland-urban interface (WUI). Therefore, for evaluating the influence of not doing the mandatory FFM around houses in the WUI and, consequently, studying the forest fire exposure behaviour on typical housing construction systems, an experimental demonstration test (DT) was carried out in a small house in a WUI environment without FFM. The DT also aimed to understand if houses in the WUI using these construction systems could be a refuge during a forest fire. The construction systems and elements assembled were representative of materials used in Portugal and South Europe in recent years. In this DT, a land plot with forest fuels was burnt in Portugal. Firefront intensity, radiant heat flux on the house, temperatures, displacements of several construction elements, and damage sustained by construction systems during the test were recorded. The DT found that these construction systems could be vulnerable to forest fires, and the building may no longer be able to constitute a refuge during forest fire exposure.

Laboratory quantification of firebrand generation from WUI fuels for model development

Firebrands play a critical role in the propagation of wildland fires, particularly in the wildland-urban interface (WUI). The mechanism behind fire spread by firebrands is not well understood despite being responsible for a majority of structure losses during WUI fires. This study quantifies the generation of firebrands from three typical WUI fuels (Douglas fir, eucalyptus globulus, and coast live oak) inside a laboratory-scale wind tunnel, to provide necessary data to model the spread of wildland fires into and within communities by burning embers. A comprehensive set of test conditions were considered, including the initial fuel mass, fuel moisture content, mean twig diameter, and crosswind speed. Results showed that the firebrand yields for all three fuel species were independent of the total dry mass lost, but positively correlated with the crosswind speed and negatively correlated to fuel moisture content and mean twig diameter. Meanwhile, the firebrand yields by mass of the fuels under the same test conditions have the following order: coast live oak >Douglas fir >eucalyptus globulus. Scaling analysis was performed to organize the data under different test conditions, and unique firebrand yield correlations were then obtained for each fuel species. In addition, the masses and projected areas of the firebrands for each fuel species had a linear fitting correlation, and the slope of the fitting line was positively correlated to fuel moisture content but insensitive to crosswind speed and mean twig diameter. The data and correlations disclosed in this study could be vital for future simulations of fire spread in both the wildland and WUI.

Fusing Social Media, Remote Sensing, and Fire Dynamics to Track Wildland-Urban Interface Fire

Wildfire is one of the main hazards affecting large areas and causes great damage all over the world, and the rapid development of the wildland-urban interface (WUI) increases the threat of wildfires that have ecological, social, and economic consequences. As one of the most widely used methods for tracking fire, remote sensing can provide valuable information about fires, but it is not always available, and needs to be supplemented by data from other sources. Social media is an emerging but underutilized data source for emergency management, contains a wealth of disaster information, and reflects the public’s real-time witness and feedback to fires. In this paper, we propose a fusion framework of multi-source data analysis, including social media data and remote sensing data, cellphone signaling data, terrain data, and meteorological data to track WUI fires. Using semantic web technology, the framework has been implemented as a Knowledge Base Service and runs on top of WUIFire ontology. WUIFire ontology represents WUI fire–related knowledge and consists of three modules: system, monitoring, and spread, and tracks wildfires happening in WUIs. It provides a basis for tracking and analyzing a WUI fire by fusing multi-source data. To showcase the utility of our approach in a real-world scenario, we take the fire in the Yaji Mountain Scenic Area, Beijing, China, in 2019 as a case study. With object information identified from remote sensing, fire situation information extracted from Weibo, and fire perimeters constructed through fire spread simulation, a knowledge graph is constructed and an analysis using a semantic query is carried out to realize situational awareness and determine countermeasures. The experimental results demonstrate the benefits of using a semantically improved multi-source data fusion framework for tracking WUI fire.

Measuring firebrand heat flux with a thin-skin calorimeter

While the impact of wildland-urban interface fires is growing, firebrand exposure is a significant but not well understood contributor to fire spread. The ignition threat of firebrand exposures can be characterized by measuring the heat transfer of glowing firebrands to a surface. The current study presents a novel method for conducting time-resolved heat transfer measurements from individual firebrands across a range of flow conditions. Experiments are conducted with individual glowing firebrands generated from birch discs and placed on a copper thin skin calorimeter of the same diameter, which is embedded in the substrate. The net heat flux from the firebrand to the thin skin calorimeter is obtained from the thermal energy storage in the thin skin calorimeter, plus heat conduction losses to the substrate. Values of peak net heat flux, total heating, duration of heating are reported under different flow conditions from 0.05 m/s to 1.6 m/s. The average peak net heat flux for the disc-shaped birch firebrands is 45 kW/m2, and does not change significantly with flow condition. However, there is an increase in the total heating, duration of heating, and total mass consumed as the flow velocity increases.

Convective heat transfer correlation for a single surrogate firebrand and a simplified firebrand pile on a flat plate using naphthalene sublimation in heated air flow

Previous studies have shown that most structure ignitions in wildland urban-interface fires are due to firebrand deposition and ignition. The heat transfer mechanisms involved in firebrand deposition need further study and characterization for better understanding of the firebrand ignition process. In particular, convective heat transfer correlations over a single firebrand and a pile of firebrands are lacking. Using the heat-mass transfer analogy, naphthalene sublimation experiments were conducted to determine convective heat transfer correlations for a single naphthalene cylinder (a surrogate firebrand) and an idealized three-firebrand pile resting on flat plates from mass loss measurements. These experiments were conducted in a wind tunnel using a heated (50 °C) or room temperature air flow (0.5 m/s to 2.1 m/s). There was good agreement between the Nusselt number correlation obtained using heated air and results with unheated airflows. Experiments using heated airflow reduced the experimental run times and uncertainty in mass loss measurements significantly. In general, the single firebrand had higher Nusselt numbers than the individual firebrands in the pile. In the three-firebrand pile, the firebrand at the top of the pile exhibited the highest heat transfer. The naphthalene sublimation technique can be easily extended to obtain convective heat transfer correlations for various firebrand geometries and configurations.

Hazardous air pollutant emissions estimates from wildfires in the wildland urban interface.

Fires that occur in the wildland urban interface (WUI) often burn structures, vehicles, and their contents in addition to biomass in the natural landscape. Because these fires burn near population centers, their emissions may have a sizeable impact on public health, necessitating a better understanding of criteria and hazardous air pollutants emitted from these fires and how they differ from wildland fires. Previous studies on the toxicity of emissions from the combustion of building materials and vehicles have shown that urban fires may emit numerous toxic species such as hydrogen cyanide, hydrogen fluoride, hydrogen chloride, isocyanates, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), dioxins and furans, and a range of toxic organic compounds (e.g. benzene toluene, xylenes, styrene, and formaldehyde) and metals (e.g. lead, chromium, cadmium, and arsenic). We surveyed the literature to create a compendium of emission factors for species emitted from the combustion of building and vehicle materials and compared them with those from wildland fires. Emission factors for some toxic species like PAH and some organic compounds were several orders of magnitude greater than those from wildfires. We used this emission factor compendium to calculate a bounding estimate of the emissions from several notable WUI fires in the western United States to show that urban fuels may contribute a sizeable portion of the toxic emissions into the atmosphere. However, large gaps remain in our understanding of the fuel composition, fuel consumption, and combustion conditions in WUI fires that constrain our ability to estimate the impact of WUI fires.

Residual impacts of a wildland urban interface fire on urban particulate matter and dust: a study from the Marshall Fire

The impacts of wildfires along the wildland urban interface (WUI) on atmospheric particulate concentrations and composition are an understudied source of air pollution exposure. To assess the residual impacts of the 2021 Marshall Fire (Colorado), a wildfire that predominantly burned homes and other human-made materials, on homes within the fire perimeter that escaped the fire, we performed a combination of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) filter sampling and chemical analysis, indoor dust collection and chemical analysis, community scale PurpleAir PM2.5 analysis, and indoor particle number concentration measurements. Following the fire, the chemical speciation of dust collected in smoke-affected homes in the burned zone showed elevated concentrations of the biomass burning marker levoglucosan (medianlevo = 4147 ng g−1), EPA priority toxic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (median Σ16PAH = 1859.3 ng g−1), and metals (median Σ20Metals = 34.6 mg g−1) when compared to samples collected in homes outside of the burn zone 6 months after the fire. As indoor dust particles are often resuspended and can become airborne, the enhanced concentration of hazardous metals and organics within dust samples may pose a threat to human health. Indoor airborne particulate organic carbon (median = 1.91 μg m−3), particulate elemental carbon (median = .02 μg m−3), and quantified semi-volatile organic species in PM2.5 were found in concentrations comparable to ambient air in urban areas across the USA. Particle number and size distribution analysis at a heavily instrumented supersite home located immediately next to the burned area showed indoor particulates in low concentrations (below 10 μg m−3) across various sizes of PM (12 nm–20 μm), but were elevated by resuspension from human activity, including cleaning.Graphical

Estimating WUI exposure probability to a nearby wildfire

BackgroundEstimating the factors affecting the probability of a wildfire reaching the wildland urban interface (WUI) can help managers make decisions to prevent WUI property loss. This study compiles data on fire progression, wind, landscape characteristics, and fireline built to estimate the probability of an active fire reaching nearby WUI blocks. We started by constructing funnel-shaped analysis zones between recorded fire perimeters and WUI blocks. We used zonal analysis to characterize landscape and fireline arrangement and then used a random forest modeling approach to quantify the probability of fire reaching the WUI blocks.ResultsWe found the probability of WUI exposure from an active fire had close relationships with several explanatory variables including wind gust velocity, suppression difficulty, control potential, fireline arrangement, road densities, WUI block sizes, and the distance between WUI and the fire’s front. We found that the most important predictor variables influencing WUI exposure probability were gust, fireline arrangement, and distance from a fire ignition location to a WUI. We found that random forest models can achieve reasonable accuracy in estimating WUI fire exposure probabilities.ConclusionsFocal analyses and random forest models can be used to estimate WUI fire exposure probabilities in support of large fire suppression decisions at division to incident scales.